Chinatown = 79% vs Castro = 6%
Some very interesting numbers presented today about mail-in voting patterns thus far in the election process. The San Francisco Chronicle reports an incredibly high percentage for early voting by mail in Chinatown and a surprisingly low number for the Castro.
The LGBT voters of the Castro generally have one of the largest voter turnouts in the city, and while the mail-in votes are quote low, there could be a surge of in-person ballot-casting tomorrow. It will be curious to see the analysis of the LGBT vote after Tuesday and how that bloc was split among the dozens of candidates.
My prediction in the mayoral race is that Mayor Ed Lee will be elected to a full-four year term, and the greasy Willie Brown and Rose Pak machine will grind on, to the detriment of the city. A depressing thought, but one we may have to get used to after all the ballots are counted.
From the Chronicle:
An analysis by Redistricting Partners, a Sacramento political consulting firm, found that as of last week, 79 percent of expected mail-in voters in Chinatown had turned in their ballots - 32 percentage points above the citywide average return at this time during two earlier election cycles.
Visitacion Valley, which has turned heavily Asian in recent years, is showing an 18 percentage point surge, followed by new immigrant areas like the Excelsior (12 percentage points) and the Sunset and Bayview (both five percentage points). ...
In Bernal Heights, only 38 percent of expected ballots had been returned, nine percentage points below the citywide average. The numbers were almost identical in the Haight.
Likewise, Potrero Hill was running four percentage points below average, the Mission seven percentage points and the Castro 6 percentage points.