Petrelis Files

Appeal to Matt Foreman:
Show Me Your Prop 8 Sources

Hi Matt,

I hope things are going well today for you down in Los Angeles at the Equality Summit. Thanks for inviting me to chat with you over coffee this coming Tuesday afternoon. I'm looking forward to hearing what you have to say about my concerns and questions regarding the direction of the local gay movement.

By the way, I've read your recent essay, which has not been posted at the Haas Jr. Fund web page and I think it should be available there along with all the blogger sites that have picked up the column, and I have one big concern with what you wrote.

You didn't provide any sourcing for all the stats and poll data you included. In my AIDS blogging, when I discuss a new HIV stats study from the SF DPH or the CDC, I not only source the stats I'm citing, but I also link to the reports on government web sites. I do this in part because I want my blog readers to follow the links and read the full reports.

I believe it would be helpful for me to fully understand some of your statistical points, if you sourced and linked to all the numbers you cite.

Here is some of what you wrote, as posted at Pam's House Blend site, and my concerns follow in italics.:

- While we won among all voters under 65, more than two-thirds (67%) of voters 65 or older voted for Prop 8.

Was this data from the secretary of state? I'd like to see the age breakdowns of the Prop 8 vote.

- More than two-thirds (70%) of people who worship at least once a week voted for Prop 8 and they make up nearly half (45%) of the electorate. Yes, our side got an equally large proportion of people who hardly ever attend church (70%), but they comprise only 29% of the vote.

You seem to be discussing both polling data and election results. Am I right?

- an astonishing 94% of "Yes" voters said "religion" or the "Bible" was most influential in deciding how to vote.

Where did this stat come from?

- What does combining older voters, frequent churchgoers and Republicans (81% of who voted for Prop 8) yield? A rock solid, close to 50% of the vote, that's what. How solid? Nearly three-quarters (73%) of those who voted for Prop 8 said nothing - that's right, nothing - would have changed their mind.

Same question: what the source behind the percentages?

- At best, we LGBT people make up 6% of the vote and unlike the fervor from our opponents' much larger base we weren't united on marriage equality.

Who determined that 6% figure and how was it arrived at?

- (Two polls said 5% of the LGBT community - or 1% of the total vote - actually voted "Yes.")

I'd like to read both polls. Are they on the web?

- Going into the Prop 8 contest, only a slim majority of Californians (54%) even believed that our relationships are moral.

Fascinating point. What study determined that percentage and who paid for the study?

- Let California Ring conducted rigorous testing in the Santa Barbara media market last year.

I've not heard of this group before. Are they an arm of Equality California? Who are they and do they have a web site?

- A baseline poll found that only 36% of people there supported marriage equality, 8-10 points below the state average.

Where is this baseline poll available on the web?

- A follow-up poll showed that support for marriage equality grew significantly, including a 16% jump among younger voters (as opposed to zero growth in markets where the campaign did not run).

Is this follow-up poll on the web somewhere?

- More tellingly, on Election Day, Santa Barbara defeated Prop 8 by 10 points (compared to it passing Prop 22 by 14 points in 2000).

This is a stat from the secretary of state, right?

- Here's another painful reality all this research again showed: using gay and lesbian people as messengers not only failed to move people in our direction, it actually hurt us - driving movables against marriage equality.

"All this research"? You've discussed quite a bit of research and I'm not sure which stat exactly you're referring to. And what are movables? I don't work in polling research so I don't have a clue what a moveable is. Sure would like to know where all this research is on the web and read it.

- Closer to home, nearly three years ago the Haas, Jr. Fund, Gill Foundation, the David Bohnett Foundation, Ambassador Jim Hormel and others invested nearly $500,000 to understand what would move Californians to support marriage equality and how to address the deeply conflicting views the mushy middle holds about LGBT equality. Once again, ads featuring gay people - individuals or couples or families - just did not work.

Where's the online proof to support the contention that it didn't work? You may have an absolutely legit point, I just want to read the research that allowed you to arrive at this conclusion.

- What did work were messages that pushed people to think about the issue in a new way, namely, asking them how would they feel if they were in our shoes. But again, gay and lesbian people didn't work as the messengers.

Please show me the research proving that pushing people to wear my Birkenstock's was a hit with voters. I think it would grealy help further the discussion you've engendered to have the stats and sources for all the numbers and conclusions you present.

See you on Tuesday at your office for our chat.

Cheers,
Michael