Petrelis Files

June 24, 2005

Dr. David Ho (Email: dgottwal@adarc.org )
Dr. Paul Volberding (Email: jaids@chi.ucsf.edu )
Dr. William Blattner (Email: bamford@umbi.umd.edu )
Editors
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes

Dear Drs. Ho, Volberding and Blattner:

A study that appeared in the November 1, 1997, issue of the Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes made two predictions about full-blown AIDS cases in San Francisco that were wrong and require a corrective note in your scientific publication.

The study, titled Projected Incidence of AIDS in San Francisco: The Peak and Decline of the Epidemic, was conducted by the following AIDS experts: Lemp, George F.; Porco, Travis C.; Hirozawa, Anne M.; Lingo, Michael; Woelffer, Greg; Hsu, Ling Chin; Katz, Mitchell H.

This is an excerpt of what they wrote in their JAIDS abstract:

"To predict the incidence of AIDS from 1978 through 1998 in San Francisco, we developed a model that combined annual HIV seroconversion rates for homosexual and bisexual men and for heterosexual injecting drug users with estimates of the incubation period distribution between HIV seroconversion and AIDS diagnosis and with estimates of the size of the at-risk populations [...]

"The annual number of new AIDS cases is estimated to have peaked at 3332 in 1992, and is projected to decline to 1196 annually by 1998." [1]

The study's projected figure for annual AIDS diagnoses caught my eye and I've gone over the San Francisco health department's own quarterly AIDS surveillance reports to verify the estimates, and it appears the findings over-estimated some AIDS statistics.

For 1992, the study claimed the highest number of AIDS cases ever for a twelve month period in the city, with 3332 cases allegedly reported and diagnosed.

However, health department epidemiology reveals 2,705 AIDS cases across the city were diagnosed in 1992, which was in fact when the annual stats hit their highest level. [2]

This means the study and JAIDS over-estimated for 1992's cases by more than 18%, or 627 additional AIDS diagnoses that thankfully didn't develop.

Furthermore, in looking at the 1196 figure predicted for 1998, it too turns out to be wildly high, in my opinion.

Again, thanks to health department AIDS surveillance, we know there were 688 AIDS cases recorded in 1998, so your study over-estimated by more than 42%, or 508 cases. [2]

In light of the actual confirmed diagnoses of AIDS by the San Francisco health department, which is now headed by one of the co-authors of the JAIDS article, Dr. Mitchell H. Katz, I believe JAIDS and the co-authors of the study are required to print a correction about their inflated estimates.

I must also point out that in November 1997 when JAIDS published the study, the 1992 AIDS stats for San Francisco were available to the researchers, who seem to be oblivious to the existing data at the time they conducted their research.

I hope you will agree with me that the record needs to be set straight on the actual number of AIDS cases in San Francisco for 1992 and 1998, which were much lower than your study reported.

A prompt correction is requested forthwith.

Sincerely,
Michael Petrelis
San Francisco, CA

CC: Dr. Mitchell H. Katz, S.F. DPH. (Email: Mitch.Katz@sfdph.org )

Sources:

1. JAIDS article

2. S.F. DPH report; page 5, table 5.