Petrelis Files

SF HIV Rate to Change on Thursday?

The HIV Prevention Planning Council, HPPC, holds its monthly meeting tomorrow and there will be a presentation by a health department epidemiologist on the city's HIV infection rate. I expect the HIV stats will be revised tomorrow, the only question is will the numbers go up, down or be endemic.

You may recall that in July the DPH released overall HIV stats for 2007 and there was a 44% decline from 2003 of new infections. This decline was not discussed at any HPPC meeting since the release of the 2007 figures.

And in late September, the DPH put out the 2007 annual report for STDs, and the HIV positivity rate at the main HIV/STD testing clinic fell 33%. In keeping with avoiding any talk about declines of HIV, which one would think would be a prime focus of the HPPC, the 33% drop is not on tomorrow's agenda.

My gut tells me the DPH will tomorrow unveil new HIV stats, and claim that they are on the rise. Why? Because the DPH, the HPPC and AIDS Inc groups never make themselves available when stats are down. But when there's even a very slight uptick in new infections, DPH experts and the HPPC put the matter on the agenda. I hope to be proved wrong.

From the October 9 HPPC agenda:

Item 7.

San Francisco Incidence Numbers Using the CDC Methodology (Information/Discussion item)

Objective: To inform the HPPC of the San Francisco incidence numbers using the new CDC methodology.

Susan Scheer, PhD, Co-Director, HIV Epidemiology Section, SFDPH