Petrelis Files

SF DPH: AIDS Cases, Deaths Drop Again; HIV Falls 33%

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This new graph from the HIV epidemiology department of the San Francisco Department of Public Health, released on Thursday, while certainly encouraging and showing full-blown AIDS cases and deaths from the disease continue their dramatic fall, it gives a false impression that both categories are at or near zero. (Click on the graph to enlarge it and view it in better detail.)

I don't understand why DPH doesn't expand the graph to more accurately reflect that cases and mortality are in the low hundreds, an issue I will bring up with the DPH.

The latest quarterly AIDS summary was web-posted yesterday and the data below is from Table 9 of the report:

Year
AIDS Cases/AIDS Deaths

1980
3 / 0

1981
26 / 8

1982
99 / 32

1983
274 / 111

1984
557 / 272

1985
859 / 531

1986
1236 / 807

1987
1629 / 876

1988
1762 / 1036

1989
2161 / 1273

1990
2048 / 1362

1991
2283 / 1495

1992
2327 / 1633

1993
2074 / 1584

1994
1784 / 1584

1995
1561 / 1475

1996
1082 / 981

1997
806 / 413

1998
692 / 396

1999
580 / 352

2000
549 / 340

2001
501 / 318

2002
488 / 319

2003
524 / 299

2004
443 / 300

2005
412 / 246

2006
297 / 200

2007 (Jan - Mar)
21 / 35

Even if we are mindful of the reporting delays of data in recent years, which means slight increases will be included in future AIDS epi reports, there is no denying a legitimate downward trend.

I am, of course, very happy to be alive to see these declines continuing and fully expect them to steadily drop even more, because of the HIV cocktails that keep viral loads down in many people with AIDS to undetectable levels, and also thanks to the community-driven and community-created practice of serosorting.

Now, there are skeptics who will read the AIDS stats and say while they're important and reflective of where the epidemic has been, we should be very worried about new HIV infections.

To address their concerns, I must point out an article the National Alliance of States and Territorial AIDS Directors newsletter of February 2007, written by two of the top HIV prevention experts at the San Francisco DPH, about a serious decrease in new transmissions:

While there was a ten percent decrease in total estimated new [HIV] cases, this seemingly modest decrease is actually a much greater prevention success than it appears.

From 2001 to 2006, the estimated number of gay men living in San Francisco increased from 46,800 to 58,343.

The increase was likely due to real growth in the gay community and, potentially, in part the result of an underestimation of the population size in 2001.

When the effect of the increase in the population size of MSM is taken into account, new infections have decreased by an estimated 33 percent. [Emphasis added]

If you want even more good news about the control and decline of HIV in San Francisco, and the practice of serosorting, check out this excellent, but buried deep in the local section, story in today's SF Chronicle. The paper reports on two new studies documenting that HIV serosorting is more widespread then previously thought.

No matter how you slice the HIV/AIDS data and research on serosorting in San Francisco, the news is, you should pardon the expression, positive.