Petrelis Files

March 25, 2005

David Corcoran
Science Desk
The New York Times

Dear Mr. Corcoran:

Today I examined all of the HIV/AIDS quarterly reports published by the New York City's Department of Health on their web site and saw how the number of HIV diagnoses in the city appear to be on the decline. I've attached below select data from the reports, to pique your interest.

As you know, New York City in 2000 began requiring all labs to report HIV positive diagnoses to the health authorities, but because of implementation and reporting delays and other factors, publishing the city's HIV epidemiology lagged in timeliness.

It seems as though recent quarterly HIV stats go back only to January 2002, but the available numbers in the quarterly surveillance reports nevertheless give a valuable, if limited, view of HIV in New York.

I believe the most significant set of stats is that for first quarter HIV surveillance, because it is for three first-quarters.

No matter the category, the department of health data reflects drops for those periods.

Although the second, third and fourth quarter reports are only for two years, they nonetheless further illustrate what may be a falling number of HIV diagnoses for the city, at least during those years.

Of course the city may have other HIV surveillance to complement the quarterly reports, and perhaps additional surveillance could show HIV rising, but if the department of health had such data, I'd expect them to share it with the public.

In any event, I'd like to suggest that the Times look at the most up-to-date HIV surveillance for New York City and consider reporting on the latest stats.

Based on all available recent quarterly reports from the city on their web site, a downward trend seems to be underway.

This should be of interest to your readers.

A prompt reply would be appreciated.

Regards,
Michael Petrelis
^^^

http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/html/dires/hivepi.html

New York City Department of Health

FIRST QUARTER STATS

HIV diagnoses during 1/1/2002 - 3/31/2002
Total: 1403
Without AIDS: 1030
Concurrent with AIDS diagnosis: 373

HIV diagnoses during 1/1/2003 - 3/31/2003
Total: 1288
Without AIDS: 961
Concurrent with AIDS diagnosis: 327

HIV diagnoses during 1/1/2004 - 3/31/2004
Total: 908
Without AIDS: 654
Concurrent with AIDS diagnoses: 254

(Sources: http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/pdf/dires/qtr1-2003.pdf , http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/pdf/dires/dires-2004-report-qtr1.pdf , http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/pdf/dires/dires-2005-report-qtr1.pdf)

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SECOND QUARTER STATS

HIV diagnoses during 1/1/2002 - 6/30/2002
Total: 2824
Without AIDS: 2098
Concurrent with AIDS diagnosis: 726

HIV diagnoses during 1/1/2003 - 6/30/2003
Total: 2118
Without AIDS: 1568
Concurrent with AIDS diagnosis: 550

(Sources: http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/pdf/dires/qtr2-2003.pdf , http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/pdf/dires/dires-2004-report-qtr2.pdf )

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THIRD QUARTER STATS

HIV diagnoses during 1/1/2002 - 9/30/2002
Total : 4219
Without AIDS: 3089
Concurrent with AIDS diagnosis: 1130

HIV diagnoses during 1/1/2003 - 9/30/2003
Total: 3105
Without AIDS: 2324
Concurrent with AIDS diagnosis: 781

(Sources: http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/pdf/dires/qtr3-2003.pdf , http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/pdf/dires/dires-2004-report-qtr3.pdf )
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FOURTH QUARTER STATS

HIV diagnoses during 1/1/2002 - 12/31/2002
Total: 5417
Without AIDS: 3988
Concurrent with AIDS diagnosis: 1429

HIV diagnoses during 1/1/2003 - 12/31/2003
Total: 4086
Without AIDS: 3057
Concurrent with AIDS diagnosis: 1029

(Sources: http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/pdf/dires/qtr4-2003.pdf , http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/pdf/dires/dires-2004-report-qtr4.pdf )