Petrelis Files

SF DPH Surveillance Report:
64,681 Gays/MSM Live in the City

The San Francisco health department recently released a PowerPoint slide show on sexually transmitted diseases among gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men from 2007 through 2010 and contained in the surveillance report was an estimate for how many such men live here.

When you follow the link above to the SF DPH site for the STD division, scroll down for the 2010 MSM Surveillance Supplement report.

There are, according to public health officials, approximately 64,681 gay, bisexual and MSM individuals in the city. The slide show does not say if that number is an increase, decrease or stable rate of how many MSM are here, but I can't imagine the figure has gone down since the last time an estimate was made for this population.

Good to see health officials taking a stab at determining the number of gays in the city. I hope the figure is used wisely in controlling and preventing STDs in the gay community.

Slide number six explains how the health department arrived at its figure:

U.S. Census does not collect gender of partners or sexual identity, so no solid estimate of the number of MSM in San Francisco is available.

SF HIV Consensus Process

- Modified Delphi Model that examines a variety of data points and makes an informed, best guess.

- Population estimates made using the Multiplier Method (UNAIDS, 2003) in which a population-based study collects information on a service used by the population during a given period. 

- Using the total number served by that service in the same period, an estimate of total population size can be calculated. Using these two data sources, the multiplier method provides a population size estimate by the formula: N = n / p, where N is the MSM population size, given by n as the number of MSM using a particular service in a specified time period and p as the proportion of MSM reporting using the particular service in the time-period collected in a population survey.

2011 HIV Consensus Estimate: 64,681 MSM reside in San Francisco.