Petrelis Files

New S.F. DPH AIDS Stats: Deaths Up, Diagnoses Down

The latest quarterly AIDS surveillance report from the San Francisco health department, through June 2006, was released last week and contained good and bad news. As always, when discussing and examining AIDS stats, bear in mind that figures are sometimes provisional and subject changing due to reporting delays with doctors and laboratories. That said, let's look at the new numbers.

AIDS diagnoses:

1996 / 1080
1997 / 806
1998 / 692
1999 / 578
2000 / 548
2001 / 499
2002 / 481
2003 / 519
2004 / 427
2005 / 372
2006 / 43

(Source: Tables 5 and 9)

AIDS cases reported:

1996 / 1246
1997 / 1061
1998 / 795
1999 / 726
2000 / 630
2001 / 498
2002 / 441
2003 / 534
2004 / 560
2005 / 519
2006 / 205

(Source: Table 9)

AIDS deaths:

1996 / 981
1997 / 413
1998 / 396
1999 / 352
2000 / 340
2001 / 318
2002 / 319
2003 / 298
2004 / 228
2005 / 241
2006 / 93

(Source: Table 9)

San Francisco has two AIDS categories, diagnoses and reported cases, to distinguish between full-blown AIDS cases with a lab confirmation of an opportunistic infection, versus reported cases where there may not be an opportunistic infection but the patient is disabled from HIV, or a lab report is delayed.

Regardless of the distinctions between categories, which per year can have wide discrepancies in their subtotals, the total numbers for both categories is exactly the same: 26,728 and 26,728. (Source: Table 9)

The good news I see here is a recent drop of cases reported and diagnoses, and the declines are occurring because of many factors; decreased viral loads, sero-sorting, safer sex behaviors, etc.

On the other hand, the increase of deaths is troubling and ought to be examined further by the health department, private doctors, community groups and people with AIDS. The jump in deaths may be happening because of an aging AIDS population, heart troubles and drug failures, and should be on the agenda at Ryan White CARE Council and HIV Prevention Planning Council.

The recent and sustained decreases in AIDS diagnoses and new HIV infections, in my opinion, can only be viewed as positive developments in the fight against AIDS, an opinion at odds with a few people who work for AIDS Inc and sit on the prevention council.

Minutes from the council's July 13 meeting, in the section about the decreases, reports this nugget of news:

"Some members expressed concerned that as numbers go down, we lose funding accordingly." (Source: Page 5)

Oh, boo-hoo-hoo! This sort of "it's so sad fewer people are contracting HIV or progressing to AIDS because our federal dollars, which pay our salaries, are at stake" attitude reveals a disturbing thinking within AIDS Inc and should evolve. Memo to AIDS Inc: HIV and AIDS declines are good for the public health and the gay community.