Petrelis Files

February 15, 2005

Sally Blower
Department of Biomathematics
sblower@biomath.medsch.ucla.edu
UCLA School of Medicine
10833 Le Conte Ave.
Los Angeles, CA 90095

Dear Ms. Blower:

In August 2001 the San Francisco Chronicle reported that you were a member of the research team that developed a mathematical model "forecasting that 42 percent of HIV infections in San Francisco will be resistant to current AIDS drugs by 2005, further complicating efforts to keep the rapidly mutating virus in check."

Given the alarming news originating from New York about a gay man who within three months of becoming infected with HIV, developed a multi-drug resistant strain of full-blown AIDS, now is a crucial time to ask if your prediction for resistance has become reality.

Are 42% of all people infected with HIV in San Francisco resistant to AIDS drugs? If they are, that is crucial information for the local health department, AIDS clinics and physicians. If the 42% figure is not the current percentage for resistance, can you tell me if it's lower or higher than you predicted?

Regarding all new HIV infections, the Chronicle also reported your model estimated 16% of new transmissions would be resistant by 2005. Is that indeed the case?

Some of your colleagues, for a variety of reasons, expressed relatively little concern about San Francisco potentially reaching a 42% resistance rate by 2005.

However, I am gravely worried that such a high level of drug-resistance to any class(es) of AIDS drugs, in light of the New York AIDS patient, could portend tragedy for both our population and our public health system.

I respectfully request and would deeply appreciate a prompt reply.

Sincerely,
Michael Petrelis
San Francisco, CA
Ph: 415-621-6267

^^^

http://www.aegis.com/news/sc/2001/SC010811.html

Aug. 31, 2001
San Francisco Chronicle

Researchers at the University of California are forecasting that 42 percent of HIV infections in San Francisco will be resistant to current AIDS drugs by 2005, further complicating efforts to keep the rapidly mutating virus in check.

"Forty-two percent is a lot of resistance. It will certainly be a challenge if we do not get new drugs developed," said Dr. James Kahn, an AIDS specialist at San Francisco General Hospital and senior author of the report, published yesterday in the journal Nature Medicine.

[snip]